Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cadiz 0-0 Leganes, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cadiz 4-0 Leganes
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 33.8% | 33.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 30.2% | 31.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 36.0% | 35.4% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Projected Score
Cadiz 0–0 Leganes
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.6%
Model confidence
35.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CadizDLLLD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
LeganesLWLDW
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CadizLeganes
33.3Attack28.6
52.4Defence66.7
19.0Form52.4
38.1Power52.3
0.83xG0.91