Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Girona · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cadiz 1-2 Girona
Original prediction
Girona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.51 | 26.4% | 35.2% | 8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.0% | 29.1% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 45.6% | 35.7% | -9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Girona
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Girona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CadizLLDDD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GironaLWWLD
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CadizGirona
43.7Attack50.0
57.9Defence50.0
43.7Form50.0
49.6Power50.0
1.29xG1.07