Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cacereño 0-0 Zamora, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cacereño 1-0 Zamora
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.8% | 35.5% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.6% | 32.0% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 31.6% | 32.5% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Projected Score
Cacereño 0–0 Zamora
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.0%
Model confidence
35.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CacereñoLDLDW
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ZamoraDDWWL
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
CacereñoZamora
28.6Attack42.9
76.2Defence66.7
42.9Form52.4
50.4Power56.3
0.78xG0.75