Cacereñovs
Arenas Getxo
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/20/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cacereño · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cacereño 3-0 Arenas Getxo
Original prediction
Cacereño
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.1% | 42.0% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.4% | 29.1% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.70 | 24.4% | 28.8% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Cacereño
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Cacereño has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60