Segunda DivisiónSegunda División
Sunday, 28 June 2026Last updated 10:05
CA River Plate

CA River Plate

Home
W
00
Full time
La Luz

La Luz

Away
WL
Parque Federico Omar Saroldi
GoalVio prediction
57% confidence
CA River Plate(57%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
CA River Plate
57%
Draw
26%
La Luz
17%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
CA River Plate
73
La Luz
34
Defence
CA River Plate
66
La Luz
82
Momentum
CA River Plate
100
La Luz
50
Danger (xG)
CA River Plate
1.80
La Luz
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (CA River Plate)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (La Luz)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (CA River Plate)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (La Luz)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
CA River PlateCA River Plate
WDW
La LuzLa Luz
WLD

Probability breakdown

57% confidence
CA River Plate57%
Draw26%
La Luz17%

CA River Plate leads with 57% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

CA River Plate head into this in Segunda División fixture at Parque Federico Omar Saroldi in mixed form (W), while La Luz arrive in mixed form (WL). CA River Plate have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 50% for La Luz over 2 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — CA River Plate (66/100) and La Luz (82/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

CA River Plate have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. La Luz have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per away game.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 0.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects CA River Plate to win with 57% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: CA River Plate 5740%, Draw 2570%, La Luz 1690%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

CA River Plate 0Draws 10 La Luz
Avg goals: 0.0
28 Jun 2026
CA River Plate
D00
La Luz

Recent form

CA River Plate

CA River Plate

W
@ Oriental
5 Jul 2026
21
D
vs La Luz
28 Jun 2026
00
W
vs Paysandu
16 May 2026
10
La Luz

La Luz

W
vs Tacuarembo
13 Jul 2026
20
L
@ Plaza Colonia
4 Jul 2026
01
D
@ CA River Plate
28 Jun 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win CA River Plate vs La Luz?

GoalVio's model predicts CA River Plate to win with 57% confidence.

What is the predicted score for CA River Plate vs La Luz?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in CA River Plate vs La Luz?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in CA River Plate vs La Luz?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more