Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CA La Paz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
CA La Paz are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Monarcas are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (57.9 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while CA La Paz holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
CA La Paz
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
CA La Paz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60