Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CA La Paz · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
CA La Paz are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Celaya are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and CA La Paz hold a 5.1-point power-rating edge (57.9 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while CA La Paz holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
CA La Paz
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
CA La Paz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60