Buxtonvs
Worksop Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Buxton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Buxton 2-2 Worksop Town
Original prediction
Buxton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 55.2% | 60.6% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.5% | 20.2% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 4.26 | 21.3% | 19.2% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.87 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Buxton
Probability
60.6%
Model confidence
60.6%
Buxton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40