Buxtonvs
Merthyr Town
SCHEDULEDEngland · National League - North · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Buxton are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Merthyr Town are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Merthyr Town hold a 8.3-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 88.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the National League - North, favouring a draw with 13.7% confidence, a 55% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.7%
Model confidence
13.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80