GGOALVIO

England · National League - North · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Buxton are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Merthyr Town are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Merthyr Town hold a 8.3-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 88.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the National League - North, favouring a draw with 13.7% confidence, a 55% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

28.7%

Model confidence

13.7%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BuxtonWLWWW

GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Merthyr TownWLLWL

GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BuxtonMerthyr Town
66.7Attack66.7
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power88.7
1.39xG1.25
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