Buxtonvs
Merthyr Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Buxton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Buxton 2-1 Merthyr Town
Original prediction
Buxton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 55.9% | 43.6% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.4% | 25.1% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 21.7% | 31.3% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Buxton
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Buxton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20