Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Buxton · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Buxton 3-1 Chester
Original prediction
Buxton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 36.3% | 38.0% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.5% | 27.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.2% | 34.6% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Buxton
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Buxton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BuxtonWLWWL
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
ChesterLDLDW
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
BuxtonChester
62.5Attack33.3
45.8Defence79.2
54.2Form58.3
54.0Power59.5
1.16xG1.07