Buxtonvs
Brackley Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Buxton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Buxton 5-0 Brackley Town
Original prediction
Buxton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 55.6% | 42.4% | -13.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.4% | 26.0% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 4.33 | 21.0% | 31.6% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Buxton
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Buxton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20