Buxtonvs
Ashton United
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Buxton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Buxton 1-0 Ashton United
Original prediction
Buxton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 68.8% | 38.7% | -30.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.70 | 19.2% | 24.2% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 7.52 | 12.0% | 37.1% | 25.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Buxton
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Buxton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BuxtonWWLWW
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Ashton UnitedLWLLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BuxtonAshton United
0.0Attack66.7
33.3Defence60.0
0.0Form66.7
15.3Power65.1
1.33xG2.07