Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Buxoro are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Neftchi are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 24.1-point power-rating edge (56.6 v 80.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.6% in the Super League, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 60% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
59.9%
Model confidence
15.6%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60