Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Navbahor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Buxoro 1-4 Navbahor
Original prediction
Navbahor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.06 | 22.4% | 29.4% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.0% | 28.9% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 49.6% | 41.7% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Navbahor
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Navbahor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BuxoroLDWWD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NavbahorDWWWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BuxoroNavbahor
50.0Attack53.3
61.7Defence70.0
56.7Form63.3
57.9Power63.6
0.95xG1.14