Buryvs
Workington
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bury 5-1 Workington
Original prediction
Bury
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.9% | 51.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.3% | 23.9% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 23.8% | 24.5% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Bury
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Bury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BuryWWLWL
GF 20 · GA 3 · avg 4.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
WorkingtonWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
BuryWorkington
77.8Attack100.0
66.7Defence50.0
83.3Form50.0
77.0Power59.5
2.46xG1.28