Buryvs
Harrogate Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bury 1-1 Harrogate Town
Original prediction
Bury
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.46 | 26.2% | 43.5% | 17.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.2% | 25.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.83 | 49.6% | 31.5% | -18.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.75 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Bury
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Bury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BuryWLWDW
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Harrogate TownWWWWL
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BuryHarrogate Town
100.0Attack50.0
77.8Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
88.7Power50.0
2.44xG1.19