Buryvs
Gainsborough Trinity
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Trophy · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bury 3-3 Gainsborough Trinity
Original prediction
Bury
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 59.6% | 47.0% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 22.0% | 24.9% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.81 | 18.4% | 28.1% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Bury
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Bury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BuryWWWLW
GF 25 · GA 3 · avg 5.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
Gainsborough TrinityWDLWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BuryGainsborough Trinity
55.6Attack33.3
0.0Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
42.5Power15.3
2.09xG1.57