Buryvs
Bromsgrove Sporting
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bury 2-1 Bromsgrove Sporting
Original prediction
Bury
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 52.2% | 42.5% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.0% | 27.1% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 3.68 | 24.8% | 30.4% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Bury
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Bury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BuryDWWWL
GF 21 · GA 6 · avg 4.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Bromsgrove SportingDWWWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BuryBromsgrove Sporting
100.0Attack66.7
83.3Defence83.3
100.0Form100.0
91.8Power86.5
1.89xG1.47