Bury Townvs
Spalding United
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spalding United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bury Town 1-1 Spalding United
Original prediction
Spalding United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.10 | 29.2% | 34.9% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.3% | 27.4% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.99 | 45.5% | 37.7% | -7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.59 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Spalding United
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Spalding United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80