Bury Townvs
Needham Market
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern Central · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bury Town 0-5 Needham Market
Original prediction
Bury Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 41.9% | 62.8% | 20.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 26.9% | 19.1% | -7.8 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 31.2% | 18.1% | -13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Bury Town
Probability
62.8%
Model confidence
62.8%
Bury Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80