Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bury Town 4-3 Leiston
Original prediction
Bury Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 46.8% | 52.0% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.5% | 23.7% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 27.7% | 24.3% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Bury Town
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Bury Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Bury TownWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LeistonWDLWD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Bury TownLeiston
73.3Attack66.7
80.0Defence53.3
100.0Form53.3
86.7Power58.9
2.05xG1.09