Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Bury Town are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Leiston are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bury Town hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (52.0 v 46.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Non League Premier - Southern Central, favouring a draw with 12.0% confidence, a 56% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
25.4%
Model confidence
12.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00