Bury Townvs
Hitchin Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern Central · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury Town · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bury Town 1-0 Hitchin Town
Original prediction
Bury Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 63.7% | 69.2% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.55 | 19.6% | 18.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 5.35 | 16.7% | 12.8% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Bury Town
Probability
69.2%
Model confidence
69.2%
Bury Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 11 · avg 3.00/2.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20