Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Algeria · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burundi 2-2 Algeria
Original prediction
Algeria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.39 | 8.9% | 32.9% | 24.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.97 | 18.6% | 25.9% | 7.3 pts |
| Away | 1.28 | 72.5% | 41.2% | -31.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.97 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-31.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Algeria
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Algeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BurundiLLWWD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
AlgeriaWWWDW
GF 15 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
BurundiAlgeria
88.9Attack100.0
88.9Defence66.7
66.7Form100.0
76.4Power88.7
1.49xG1.11