Burton Albionvs
Mansfield Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burton Albion · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burton Albion 2-2 Mansfield Town
Original prediction
Burton Albion
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 39.3% | 46.7% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.9% | 24.4% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.8% | 28.9% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.33 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Burton Albion
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Burton Albion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40