Friendlies Clubs
Burton Albion
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Derby
AwayFriendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.
The model projects 1.11 xG for Burton Albion and 1.53 xG for Derby — meaningful and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.43), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.Both sides have shown consistent scoring form recently — Burton Albion finding the net in 6 of 10 matches and Derby in 10 of 10. That scoring reliability aligns with the xG projection and strengthens the BTTS case.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.64 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesDerbyProbability breakdown
Derby leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Burton Albion vs Derby: Model Points to a Closely-Fought Draw
Burton Albion host Derby in Friendlies Clubs. Burton Albion have recorded DDDLLD in recent matches while Derby arrive with a run of LWLWLL.
Why GoalVio backs this
The xG model projects 1.11 for Burton Albion and 1.53 for Derby. The gap of 0.43 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.
Biggest risk: The draw projection is inherently fragile — a single moment of quality from either side could produce a winner. The model sees no clear favourite, which means the actual result is highly sensitive to in-game events and individual quality.
Risk factors
- ⚠Burton Albion have been conceding 1.74 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
- ⚠The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.
Recent form
Derby
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burton Albion vs Derby?
GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 33% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Burton Albion vs Derby?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-1.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Derby?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Burton Albion vs Derby?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.