Burton Albionvs
AFC Wimbledon
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burton Albion · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burton Albion 4-1 AFC Wimbledon
Original prediction
Burton Albion
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 46.2% | 42.0% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.3% | 28.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.67 | 25.4% | 29.7% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Burton Albion
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Burton Albion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40