Bursasporvs
Mardin 1969
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 10/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bursaspor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Bursaspor 1-0 Mardin 1969, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Bursaspor 1-2 Mardin 1969
Original prediction
Bursaspor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 54.7% | 44.7% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.4% | 29.5% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 4.57 | 19.9% | 25.8% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.0 pts
Projected Score
Bursaspor 1–0 Mardin 1969
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Bursaspor
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Bursaspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BursasporWDWWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Mardin 1969LLWDD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BursasporMardin 1969
66.7Attack37.5
70.8Defence79.2
79.2Form50.0
73.3Power56.5
1.29xG0.67