Bursasporvs
İstanbulspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 9/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bursaspor · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bursaspor 4-0 İstanbulspor
Original prediction
Bursaspor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 66.3% | 38.5% | -27.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.55 | 20.0% | 26.7% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 6.62 | 13.7% | 34.8% | 21.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Bursaspor
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Bursaspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20