Bursasporvs
Esenler Erokspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 9/13/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bursaspor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Bursaspor 1-0 Esenler Erokspor, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Bursaspor 2-2 Esenler Erokspor
Original prediction
Bursaspor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.1% | 47.8% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.0% | 27.8% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.97 | 22.9% | 24.4% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.64 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Projected Score
Bursaspor 1–0 Esenler Erokspor
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Bursaspor
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Bursaspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BursasporWWWLW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Esenler EroksporLDLDD
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BursasporEsenler Erokspor
66.7Attack11.1
77.8Defence66.7
83.3Form22.2
76.5Power36.1
1.66xG0.58