Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burnley W 3-2 Durham W
Original prediction
Burnley W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 48.7% | 46.2% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 25.8% | 26.0% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 25.5% | 27.8% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Burnley W
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Burnley W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Burnley WLDLLD
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Durham WLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 18 · avg 1.00/3.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Burnley WDurham W
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence0.0
50.0Form0.0
50.0Power15.3
2.23xG1.39