Burnley Wvs
Aston Villa W
COMPLETEDEngland · WSL Cup · 10/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burnley W 0-2 Aston Villa W
Original prediction
Aston Villa W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.45 | 8.6% | 29.0% | 20.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.73 | 15.6% | 23.6% | 8.0 pts |
| Away | 1.18 | 75.8% | 47.4% | -28.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa W
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Aston Villa W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40