Burnley U21vs
Derby County U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derby County U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burnley U21 4-1 Derby County U21
Original prediction
Derby County U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.3% | 35.1% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 24.8% | 23.4% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 31.9% | 41.4% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.2–36%
Predicted outcome
Derby County U21
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Derby County U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 9 · GA 15 · avg 1.80/3.00