Burnley U21vs
Aston Villa U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burnley U21 0-1 Aston Villa U21
Original prediction
Burnley U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 32.2% | 39.1% | 6.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.4% | 22.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 45.4% | 38.2% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Burnley U21
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Burnley U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 14 · avg 2.20/2.80