Burkina Fasovs
Benin
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/25/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burkina Faso · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burkina Faso 1-1 Benin
Original prediction
Burkina Faso
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 61.8% | 56.0% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.8% | 25.3% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 6.76 | 13.5% | 18.7% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–014%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Burkina Faso
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
Burkina Faso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80