Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Burgos 0-0 Sabadell, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Burgos 1-0 Sabadell
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 34.0% | 33.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 32.1% | 32.2% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 33.9% | 34.1% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Projected Score
Burgos 0–0 Sabadell
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.2%
Model confidence
34.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BurgosLLWWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SabadellWDDWL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BurgosSabadell
44.4Attack37.0
63.0Defence74.1
51.9Form59.3
55.5Power59.4
0.79xG0.80