Burgosvs
Real Sociedad II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 8/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burgos · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burgos 2-2 Real Sociedad II
Original prediction
Burgos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 51.5% | 47.6% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.9% | 26.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.54 | 20.6% | 25.9% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Burgos
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Burgos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BurgosLWDLW
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Real Sociedad IIWLLLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BurgosReal Sociedad II
41.3Attack41.3
57.1Defence51.6
46.8Form37.3
49.8Power45.1
1.30xG0.95