Burgosvs
Granada CF
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 10/12/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burgos · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burgos 0-1 Granada CF
Original prediction
Burgos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 37.9% | 43.2% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.8% | 27.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 32.3% | 29.1% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Burgos
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Burgos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BurgosLWWWD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Granada CFWLLDL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BurgosGranada CF
50.0Attack54.2
62.5Defence45.8
58.3Form45.8
59.5Power50.2
1.71xG1.09