Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burgos · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burgos 1-0 Eldense
Original prediction
Burgos
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 45.5% | 48.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 29.5% | 27.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.72 | 25.0% | 23.5% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Burgos
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
Burgos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BurgosWWDDL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EldenseLWDLD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BurgosEldense
55.6Attack22.2
61.1Defence55.6
61.1Form27.8
61.7Power38.1
1.60xG0.70