Burgosvs
AD Ceuta FC
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 9/11/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burgos · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burgos 3-1 AD Ceuta FC
Original prediction
Burgos
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 56.8% | 43.8% | -12.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 25.2% | 28.4% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 5.17 | 18.0% | 27.8% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Burgos
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Burgos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BurgosDDLWD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AD Ceuta FCLLLLW
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BurgosAD Ceuta FC
66.7Attack40.5
33.3Defence50.0
33.3Form48.4
45.3Power48.7
1.53xG1.10