Burgess Hill Townvs
Maldon & Tiptree
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Isthmian · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burgess Hill Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burgess Hill Town 4-1 Maldon & Tiptree
Original prediction
Burgess Hill Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 53.0% | 59.1% | 6.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.4% | 20.6% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.69 | 24.6% | 20.2% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Burgess Hill Town
Probability
59.1%
Model confidence
59.1%
Burgess Hill Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 4 · GA 17 · avg 0.80/3.40