Burgess Hill Townvs
Aveley
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Isthmian · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burgess Hill Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burgess Hill Town 1-1 Aveley
Original prediction
Burgess Hill Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 39.4% | 49.1% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.8% | 23.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 35.8% | 27.7% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Burgess Hill Town
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Burgess Hill Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 8 · avg 3.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40