Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogdiana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bunyodkor 1-1 Sogdiana
Original prediction
Sogdiana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 30.9% | 30.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.2% | 24.7% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 41.9% | 44.5% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Sogdiana
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Sogdiana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BunyodkorLWLLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SogdianaLLDWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BunyodkorSogdiana
33.3Attack58.0
43.5Defence33.3
31.9Form40.6
39.1Power45.0
1.40xG1.82