Bulgariavs
Luxembourg
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/26/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Bulgaria 1-2 Luxembourg
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 40.6% | 30.6% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 31.5% | 33.1% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.34 | 27.9% | 36.3% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Projected Score
Bulgaria 0–0 Luxembourg
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.1%
Model confidence
36.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BulgariaDLLDL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LuxembourgWLWWD
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
BulgariaLuxembourg
20.8Attack33.3
58.3Defence70.8
37.5Form37.5
41.2Power48.0
0.60xG0.84