Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bulgaria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia
Original prediction
Bulgaria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 54.5% | 42.1% | -12.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 27.2% | 30.8% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 5.10 | 18.4% | 27.1% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.45 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.4 pts
Projected Score
Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Bulgaria
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Bulgaria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BulgariaLDLLD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
EstoniaDWDLD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BulgariaEstonia
20.8Attack16.7
58.3Defence50.0
37.5Form22.2
41.2Power32.1
0.91xG0.73