Bulgaria U21vs
Portugal U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 9/25/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portugal U21 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Bulgaria U21 0-2 Portugal U21, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Bulgaria U21 2-1 Portugal U21
Original prediction
Portugal U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13.37 | 6.8% | 8.4% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.36 | 14.3% | 17.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.16 | 78.8% | 74.1% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Projected Score
Bulgaria U21 0–2 Portugal U21
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Portugal U21
Probability
74.1%
Model confidence
74.1%
Portugal U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
GF 22 · GA 0 · avg 4.40/0.00