Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BUL · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
BUL 2-1 NEC
Original prediction
BUL
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.4% | 42.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.62 | 34.2% | 29.7% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 3.82 | 23.4% | 27.6% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
BUL
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
BUL has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BULWDWWW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NECWDWDW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BULNEC
72.2Attack61.1
83.3Defence88.9
88.9Form77.8
82.2Power76.4
1.22xG0.91