Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Start W · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-3 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bryne W 0-6 Start W
Original prediction
Start W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.41 | 14.0% | 20.7% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.54 | 19.7% | 23.8% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.35 | 66.4% | 55.5% | -10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Start W
Probability
55.5%
Model confidence
55.5%
Start W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Bryne WLWWLW
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Start WWDWWW
GF 9 · GA 1 · avg 1.80/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Bryne WStart W
41.7Attack78.3
43.3Defence70.0
38.3Form85.0
41.6Power77.9
0.73xG2.74