Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grei W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bryne W 5-0 Grei W
Original prediction
Grei W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 33.1% | 29.3% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 24.7% | 26.9% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 42.2% | 43.8% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Grei W
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Grei W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Bryne WLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Grei WWWLLW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Bryne WGrei W
26.7Attack66.7
42.2Defence33.3
31.1Form35.6
35.8Power44.7
1.18xG2.18