Brusquevs
Ferroviária
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie C · 9/27/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brusque 1-1 Ferroviária
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.47 | 36.4% | 35.0% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 30.9% | 30.1% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 32.7% | 34.8% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.90 · Draw 1.90 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.1%
Model confidence
35.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BrusqueLDWDD
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
FerroviáriaWWDWL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BrusqueFerroviária
51.5Attack43.9
57.6Defence69.7
54.5Form56.1
56.8Power58.3
1.00xG1.03