Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bærum · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-2 (7%), 5-2 (7%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bærum 2-1 Ullern
Original prediction
Bærum
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 51.8% | 64.7% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 20.3% | 15.1% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 27.9% | 20.2% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–27%
- 2.5–27%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Bærum
Probability
64.7%
Model confidence
64.7%
Bærum has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BærumLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
UllernLWLWL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BærumUllern
92.8Attack60.9
34.8Defence13.0
50.7Form33.3
56.4Power38.2
4.50xG2.24